Polling Memo: Mitch McConnell 68, Matt Bevin 21
To: Team Mitch
From: Jan van Lohuizen
Re: Latest Poll Results
As you know, we came out of the field this morning with a poll of 600 likely Republican primary voters in Kentucky. The survey was fielded with live interviewers over landlines and cell phones from Sunday, August 18th through Tuesday, August 20th. The margin of error on these findings is ±4.0%, and a summary of our findings is reported below.
The State of the Race
Republican primary voters are overwhelmingly likely to support their current Senator, Mitch McConnell. Senator McConnell leads Matt Bevin by a 47 point margin, with 68% of Republican primary voters saying they’ll vote for him compared to 21% saying they’ll vote for Matt Bevin. Just 8% say they’re undecided at this point.
In addition to very few undecided voters, voters appear satisfied with the candidates. Even fewer than those who are undecided are those who plan to vote for someone other than the main, declared candidates or plan to stay home because they are dissatisfied with the choices.
McConnell leads on the ballot with all major demographic segments studied, including high turnout voters: straight-ticket Republican voters (+61), very conservative voters (+57), seniors (+55), younger women (+53), men (+49), and those who consider themselves Tea Party Republicans (+46).
Bevin’s vote share may in fact decline, as the ad highlighting Bevin’s claim to have graduated from MIT despite never having been a student there aired during just one day of our three day field period (Tuesday), and very few respondents would have had the opportunity to see the ad prior to completing the poll. The survey shows Bevin’s dishonesty about his educational background is a concern for voters, with 53% expressing a negative reaction, including 39% with a very negative reaction.
The survey results show that Republican primary voters are comfortable with Mitch McConnell as their choice in the Republican primary and intend to vote for McConnell in 2014.