Grimes Camp Scrambling To ‘Calm Donors, Supporters’

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
September 12, 2014
Contact: Allison Moore 502-618-1372

10 Independent Polls Show McConnell Clearly Ahead

Grimes Camp Scrambling To ‘Calm Donors, Supporters’ After ‘Several Weeks’ Of Polls Show The Election ‘Slipping Away’ 

LOUISVILLE – Team Mitch today released the following background information on Alison Lundergan Grimes’ campaign scrambling to ‘calm donors’ following 10 independent polls showing Sen. McConnell with a clear lead. 

Grimes Wants Allies To Believe She ‘Still Has A Shot’ 

“Grimes Campaign Releases Internal Numbers to Calm Donors, Supporters” (Phillip Bailey, “Grimes Campaign Releases Internal Numbers to Calm Donors, Supporters,” WFPL, 9/10/14) 

Grimes Wants To Give The Impression That She “Still Has A Shot” Of Winning After Numerous Bad Polls For Her Campaign. “The campaign to elect Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes wants donors and supporters to know she still has a shot at beating Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell this fall. That’s what one can gather from an internal poll and subsequent messages Grimes’ team sent outWednesday...” (Phillip Bailey, “Grimes Campaign Releases Internal Numbers to Calm Donors, Supporters,” WFPL, 9/10/14) 

Recent Polls Show The Election “Slipping Away” From Grimes. “The timing of the release, however, comes at a critical moment for Grimes as a candidate after a series of polls show this seat is slipping away from the Democrat’s grasp. In fact, the last nine polls have McConnell either slightly increasing or greatly expanding his lead. The latest survey was a GOP-leaning Magellan Strategies Poll showed the senator up by a strong 8-point margin.” (Phillip Bailey, “Grimes Campaign Releases Internal Numbers to Calm Donors, Supporters,” WFPL, 9/10/14) 

Alison Grimes “Stung By Several Weeks” Of Bad Poll Numbers. “Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes, stung by several weeks worth of public polling that has shown her trailing Sen. Mitch McConnell by anywhere between 4 and 8 percentage points...” (Joe Gerth, “Alison Grimes pushes back against sagging polls,” Courier-Journal, 9/10/14) 

“…an effort to calm skittish Democratic donors ahead of a fundraising push Grimes is doing in Washington, D.C. and Los Angeles this month.” (Sam Youngman, “Grimes touts internal poll giving her 1-point edge, contrary to all public polls, Herald-Leader, 9/10/14) 

“Stephen Voss, a professor of political science at the University of Kentucky, said campaigns will often release good news if they're worried…” (Sam Youngman, “Grimes touts internal poll giving her 1-point edge, contrary to all public polls, Herald-Leader, 9/10/14)

Grimes Gurus Hide Specifics, Concede ‘Disparities’ 

Mellman Refused To Specify How The Campaign Screened For Likely Voters. “In a telephonic press conference, Mellman refused to say how the poll screened for likely voters other than to say that it was based on voting history and voter registration files.” (Joe Gerth, “Alison Grimes pushes back against sagging polls,” Courier-Journal, 9/10/14) 

Mellman Conceded That “Geographic Disparities” Exist In The Senate Race. “The geographic breakdowns of recent polls have shown enormous disparities between the candidates, with McConnell enjoying overwhelming leads in Western Kentucky and Eastern Kentucky and Grimes holding smaller leads in Central Kentucky… Mellman acknowledged that there are "geographic disparities" in the race”  (Sam Youngman, “Grimes touts internal poll giving her 1-point edge, contrary to all public polls, Herald-Leader, 9/10/14) 

Campaign Manager Jonathan Hurst Acknowledged That The Campaign Released The Poll In Direct Response To Sen. McConnell’s “Widening Lead”. “Jonathan Hurst, Grimes' campaign manager, acknowledged in an interview that the campaign had released the memo to combat the number of polls that showed McConnell with a widening lead” (Joe Gerth, “Alison Grimes pushes back against sagging polls,” Courier-Journal, 9/10/14)

Journalists Mock 

US News’ David Catanese: “It's INTERNAL poll season. Also known as, don't #triage me bro!” (David Catanese, Twitter Feed, 9/10/14) 

Washington Post’s Aaron Blake: “This is the this-race-is-still-competitive-please-don't-give-up internal poll in #KYSEN” (Aaron Blake, Twitter Feed, 9/10/14) 

Real Clear Politics’ Scott Conroy: “@AaronBlakeWP weird. Every public poll for over 2 months has had McConnell ahead. Just a coincidence I guess that the 1 internal has her up.” (Scott Conroy,Twitter Feed, 9/10/14) 

New York Times’ Jonathan Weisman: “So Mark Mellman says Alison Grimes' 1 pt lead is "small but impressive" in partisan poll w/ 15% undecided? What would he do w a 2 pt lead?” (Jonathan Weisman, Twitter Feed, 9/10/14) 

Reality: McConnell Lead Clear 

Last Ten Polls Show Clear McConnell Lead:  

Magellan: McConnell +8 (McConnell 50, Grimes 42; 742LV 9/4-9/7)

CBS/NYT Poll: McConnell +5 (McConnell 47, Grimes 42; 2,130LV 8/18-9/2)

POS: McConnell +5 (McConnell 47, Grimes 42; 600LV 9/1-9/3)

NBC/Marist Poll: McConnell +8 (McConnell 47, Grimes 39; 691LV 9/2-9/4)

Rasmussen Poll: McConnell +5 (McConnell 46, Grimes 41; 750LV 9/1-9/2)

CNN Poll: McConnell +4 (McConnell 50, Grimes 46; 671LV 8/28-9/1)

Bluegrass Poll: McConnell +4 (McConnell 46, Grimes 42; 569LV 8/25-8/27)

PPP Poll: McConnell +4 (McConnell 44, Grimes 40; 991LV 8/7-8/10)

Bluegrass Poll: McConnell +2 (McConnell 47, Grimes 45; 604LV 7/18-7/23)

CBS/NYT Poll: McConnell +4 (McConnell 50, Grimes 46; 1,515LV 7/5-7/24)

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