Election Forecasters Predict McConnell Victory

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

July 16, 2014

Contact: Allison Moore 502-618-1372

LOUISVILLE – Team Mitch today released the following statement and background information highlighting that election forecasters are predicting a McConnell victory in November.

“The main reason Alison Lundergan Grimes has appeared to be a viable candidate is because she’s able to rake in the Obama liberal cash just by running against Mitch McConnell. But no amount of liberal cash will cover up the fact that she is Barack Obama’s Kentucky candidate, and while Barack Obama needs Alison Lundergan Grimes, Kentuckians need Mitch McConnell to represent them in the U.S. Senate,” said Team Mitch spokeswoman Allison Moore. 

BACKGROUND:

Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog Election Forecast Gives Sen. McConnell A Greater Than 99% Chance Of Being Re-Elected. (Monkey Cage’s Election Lab,Washington Post, Accessed 7/16/14)

The New York Times’ “The Upshot” Senate Forecast Model Gives Sen. McConnell An 85% Chance Of Winning. (“Who Will Win The Senate?,” New York Times, Accessed 7/16/14)

Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog: “McConnell has opened up a narrow lead that, in combination with the model, is sufficient for us to forecast a Republican victory there.” (John Sides, “New Election Lab forecast suggests 86 percent chance that GOP wins Senate,” Washington Post, 7/15/14)

FiveThirtyEight: “But Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, has all the fundamentals going for him: President Obama is deeply unpopular in Kentucky, McConnell is an incumbent, and Democrats haven’t won a statewide federal race in Kentucky in 18 years. They haven’t won a Senate race in 22 years. In May, I estimated that these factors knocked down Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes’s chances of winning by nearly 30 percentage points, from the low 40s into the teens. (Harry Enten, “Democrats Are in a Perilous Position in 2014 Senate Races,” FiveThirtyEight, 7/15/14)

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