12th Straight Poll: McConnell With Clear Lead

September 18, 2014
Contact: Allison Moore 502-618-1372

Pollster Showed The Race Tied In July, Now McConnell Has Ten Point Lead

LOUISVILLE – Team Mitch today released the following background information on a new poll showing Sen. McConnell with a ten point lead over Alison Lundergan Grimes.

Gravis Poll Shows Ten Point McConnell Lead. ““If the race for election for US Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Mitch McConnell and Democrat Alison Lundgren Grimes, whom would you vote for?”, a majority of voters; (51%) would currently support McConnell, while (41%) would cast a vote for Democrat Alison Lundgren Grimes.” (“Current Kentucky Polling, Gravis Marketing, 9/18/14)

Grimes Campaign Touted The Results Of July’s Gravis Poll. “BREAKING: A new poll released today by a Republican-leaning pollster Gravis Marketing shows Alison and Mitch locked in a dead heat—45 to 45. Even Republicans know it: this race couldn’t be closer and Mitch McConnell is in real trouble. (Alison For Kentucky, Facebook, Accessed 9/18/14)

McConnell Lead Clear, Consistent 

Last Twelve Polls Show Clear McConnell Lead: 

Gravis: McConnell +10 (McConnell, 51, Grimes, 41, 839RV, 9/16)
ccAdvertising: McConnell +9 (McConnell 42, Grimes 33, 2282, 9/15/14-9/16/14)
Magellan: McConnell +8 (McConnell 50, Grimes 42; 742LV 9/4-9/7)
CBS/NYT Poll: McConnell +5 (McConnell 47, Grimes 42; 2,130LV 8/18-9/2)
NBC/Marist Poll: McConnell +8 (McConnell 47, Grimes 39; 691LV 9/2-9/4)
POS: McConnell +5 (McConnell 47, Grimes 42; 600LV 9/1-9/3)
Rasmussen Poll: McConnell +5 (McConnell 46, Grimes 41; 750LV 9/1-9/2)
CNN Poll: McConnell +4 (McConnell 50, Grimes 46; 671LV 8/28-9/1)
Bluegrass Poll: McConnell +4 (McConnell 46, Grimes 42; 569LV 8/25-8/27)
PPP Poll: McConnell +4 (McConnell 44, Grimes 40; 991LV 8/7-8/10)
Bluegrass Poll: McConnell +2 (McConnell 47, Grimes 45; 604LV 7/18-7/23)
CBS/NYT Poll: McConnell +4 (McConnell 50, Grimes 46; 1,515LV 7/5-7/24)

‘McConnell Is Pulling Away’ 

Alison Grimes Has Faced Speculation That Her “Campaign Was Withering”. “With at least seven public polls showing her trailing Mitch McConnell by anywhere between 4 and 8 percentage points, Alison Lundergan Grimes sent her pollster out last week to tamp down speculation that her campaign was withering at the hands of an opponent who has killed off every challenger who faced him.” (Joe Gerth, “Grimes pushes back against sagging polls,” Courier-Journal, 9/11/14)

Some Speculate That The Grimes Campaign Needs “A Major Reset”. “Some who watch campaigns closely say the bulk of polling suggests it may be time for a major reset in the Grimes camp if she wants to restore the momentum she appeared to have last winter.” (Joe Gerth, “Grimes pushes back against sagging polls,” Courier-Journal, 9/11/14)

New York Times Analysis Shows Recent Polls Show Sen. McConnell Has A “Clear Advantage.” “But if there is any plausibly competitive state where we have now have a clear sense of a Senate race, it is Kentucky. A recent set of diverse and high-quality nonpartisan polls and the underlying fundamentals are all in alignment: Mr. McConnell has a clear advantage. Every survey over the last month shows Mr. McConnell ahead by more than four points, including two traditional live-interview surveys that contacted voters via a cellphones, one Internet panel survey and a nonpartisan automated poll that contacted voters without a landline by means of an online panel.” (Nate Cohn, “Mitch McConnell’s Path to Re-Election Is Looking More Assured,” New York Times, 9/8/14)

Sen. McConnell Is “Pulling Away” From Alison Grimes In Senate Contest. “A new poll put out by NBC News and The Marist Institute for Public Opinion says Sen. Mitch McConnell is pulling away from Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes. The survey, conducted in September, says 47 percent of likely voters indicated they would vote for McConnell if the election were held today, compared to 39 percent for Grimes.” (John Paxton, “New poll says McConnell is pulling away,” WAVE, 9/7/14) 

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